Time-Driven Fire Risk Forecasting: Leveraging Historical Trends for Enhanced Seasonal Modeling
Roma Jain , Akshath R. Ravikiran , and Pareekshith Katti
Wildfires pose severe threats across North America, causing extensive damage to lives, ecosystems, and property. To address this, accurate fire prediction and forecast outlooks are crucial for effective mitigation. Agencies like the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) provide vital fire risk assessments. In this paper, our main goal was to demonstrate the sufficiency of historical fire risk data for accurate forecasting. We focused on weather-calculation-based fire risk prediction models, specifically exploring the temporal aspect’s importance in enhancing accuracy. Two encoding methods, One-Shot and Year-By-Year, used for encoding the seasonal changes of fire weather, were analyzed for their implications in fire risk assessment, revealing contrasting attributes. The One-Shot model shows superior accuracy and favorable plots, while the Year-By-Year model offers alternative insights. Despite minor differences in feature importance between the two models, both effectively utilized historical fire weather data for forecasting. This study contributes significantly to fire risk prediction by providing a comprehensive analysis of temporal influences and the effectiveness of different encoding methods. The findings guide model design improvements, bolstering wildfire management and protection measures.